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AI for Private Equity: Where EBITDA Is Found and Why Most Firms Are Missing It

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AI for Private Equity: Where EBITDA Is Found and Why Most Firms Are Missing It

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The gap between what AI can deliver for a private equity portfolio company and what most are actually capturing today is significant. Closing this gap is not primarily a technology problem. Private equity firms are no longer debating whether to use AI; the question now is how and on what timeline.

The Diligence Data You Already Have Is Telling You Something

Quality-of-earnings (QoE) diligence produces a detailed picture of earnings quality, cost structure, working capital, and customer dynamics. The same data reveals where AI initiatives can accelerate the value creation work already underway. Customer retention patterns, pricing discipline, back-office costs, and the presence of large proprietary data are all standard QoE outputs. Each points to a specific value creation lever with a corresponding AI application. The work to surface these opportunities is largely already being done. What changes is how the findings are interpreted.

Not All AI Is the Same, and the Differences Matter

AI investment spans a range of categories that differ substantially in AI implementation complexity, time to EBITDA impact, and defensibility at exit. For example:

The Limitation The Opportunity
Off-the-shelf foundation models drive individual productivity but do not move EBITDA on their own. Custom models built for pricing, demand forecasting, or churn prediction carry higher implementation requirements but provide meaningful, documented revenue and margin impact.
Native AI features embedded in the software a portfolio company already owns are often paid-for but turned off. AI built into the product itself or trained on proprietary data is the category that can have the largest impact on the exit multiple.

Technology Is Not the Binding Constraint

The most consistent finding across AI implementations is that organizational readiness determines whether the investment pays off. A PE firm can deploy a well-selected AI tool, see individual productivity improve substantially, and observe no movement in EBITDA.

EBITDA registers when released capacity converts to reduced headcount, increased throughput, or new revenue. That conversion requires deliberate changes to workflows, roles, and how outcomes are measured. When those conditions are missing, AI-driven productivity stays at the individual level and never reaches the P&L.

What This Means for Operating Partners

The operating partner opportunity is not primarily about identifying the right tools. It is about closing the gap between what AI can deliver and what portfolio companies are actually capturing. That gap lives in workflows that have not been redesigned, data that has not been reconciled, and governance structures where no P&L owner was ever named. The firms that close it earliest in the hold period will have the most time to compound the benefits and the strongest story to tell at exit.

 


 

Published: 01/27/2026

Readers should not act upon information presented without individual professional consultation.

Any federal tax advice contained in this communication (including any attachments): (i) is intended for your use only; (ii) is based on the accuracy and completeness of the facts you have provided us; and (iii) may not be relied upon to avoid penalties.

 

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Ryan Orton Partner ryan.orton@rubinbrown.com 303.952.1214
Jeff Sackman, CPA, CM&AA, CGMA Partner jeff.sackman@rubinbrown.com 314-290-3406

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